Safety and Security
This goal captures the sense that marine resources are not limited by safety concerns.
CORE DEFINITION
- Focus: The objective and subjective measures of safety and security in coastal and marine areas
- Not about: Safety as a standalone goal — rather, it is conceptualized as a pressure influencing multiple goals
- Emphasis: Crime rates, perceptions of safety, and their impacts on other goals
Key Questions
As we explore the idea of incorporating Safety & Security into the OHI for the Gulf of California, it is important to clarify the objective, the core definitions, potential structure, and measurement considerations for this potential goal. Below are key discussion points and considerations to review.
1. Objective
Does the safety and security goal seem to be more of a pressure on many other goals, or a goal by itself?
To clarify intent:
- What do we want to achieve by adding Safety & Security to the OHI GoCA?
- Increase visibility of safety issues in coastal/marine areas?
- Drive new initiatives to reduce crime and promote safer environments?
- Does a safer Gulf mean a healthier Gulf?
To clarify definitions:
- Does a “healthy gulf” mean people are objectively safe, feel safe, or both?
- Should the goal focus on actual crime rates, perceived safety, or a combination? Or something else entirely?
| Term | Possible Definition |
|---|---|
| Safety | Objective condition with low crime/incidence of threats |
| Security | Subjective perception; trust in law enforcement, institutions |
2. Scope
- Should “Safety” include only organized crime, or also theft, assault, kidnapping, etc.?
- Is the ideal scenario truly zero crime, or a “tolerable” minimum?
- How do we address the diversity of crimes and their impacts on coastal communities?
3. Measuring
Safety (Objective)
- Should it potentially include:
- Official crime statistics (coastal, marine, port-related crime)?
- Both organized crime and general crime? Or just organized crime?
Security (Subjective)
- Should it potentially include:
- Surveys on people’s feelings of safety in specific coastal regions?
- Trust in law enforcement, visible presence of authorities, community initiatives?
Goalkeeper Meetings
Meeting Access
Zoom Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/3255055973
Key Team Members
- Amy Hudson Weaver
- Francisco Fernandez
- Jorge Torre
- Siria Gastelum
- VĂctor Ricardez
Meeting Schedule (Friday 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM PDT)
| Meeting | Specific Date | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 25, 2025 | Group introductions, OHI platform overview, goal calculations |
| 2 | August 29, 2025 | Model and reference point discussion |
| 3 | September 26, 2025 | Model, reference point, and data sources |
| 4 | October 24, 2025 | Preliminary results and pressure/resilience |
| 5 | November 21, 2025 | Final analysis plan review |
| 6 | January 2026 (tentative) | Tentative |
Google Calendar
Add the shared calendar to your Google Calendar account using the provided link. It will appear under “Other calendars” and provide access to all scheduled meetings with updated Zoom links.
Please let us know if you have any questions. We look forward to working on this initiative with you!
- Meeting #1 Slides to revisit the main ideas.
- Meeting #2 Slides on the impacts of safety & security across OHI goals.
- SS Goalkeeper Ideas, where you can add your thoughts, ideas, and potential data sources to the ongoing collaborative document.
Meeting Summaries
Thank you for joining our first Safety & Security (SS) Goalkeeper meeting!
It was a great start to our work together in defining what safety & security means for the Gulf of California, and how it should be integrated into this assessment.
The group agreed that Safety & Security (SS) is better conceptualized as a type of pressure rather than a standalone goal. This is because the Gulf of California does not inherently provide safety or security — but SS influences the condition of many other goals.
However, unlike typical pressures, SS also affects the current status of several goals. The group proposed modeling SS as a unique pressure that impacts both the current status and the likely future status, with varying influence depending on the goal. For example, in Natural Products, SS could affect each product differently, with variable weights.
Jorge and VĂctor identified goals most impacted by crime and insecurity:
- Livelihoods & Economies (individuals are limited in the jobs they can have)
- Tourism & Recreation (locals and tourists may not want to visit certain places and may avoid certain coastal areas due to organized crime presence)
- Food Provision (sector control, job insecurity, and threats of violence)
- Artisanal Opportunities (physical access to the coast in certain areas are limited, and therefore access to marine resources for communities are limited)
- Sense of Place (where communities do not feel that “sense of belonging” to the Gulf because of safety perceptions or area avoidance)
- Clean Waters (e.g., pollution from narco operations)
- Biodiversity (e.g., crime-occupied habitats restrict conservation access)
- Research/Ocean Literacy (e.g., limited scientific access or enforcement)
- Natural Products (depending on the product)
But it would not affect the Carbon Storage/Coastal Protection goal. And, for the Tourism & Recreation goal, SS likely does not affect the current status, because current indicators already capture the effect of safety on travel behavior. SS would instead only influence the likely future status for this goal.
The group debated how to define “crime” in this context:
- VĂctor: Include all crime, as it all has tangible effects.
- Jorge: Emphasize organized crime, which has a particularly strong impact in the Gulf.
- Proposal: Stay flexible in defining SS, as organized crime might be hard to isolate from general crime in available data.
The SS Goalkeeper Group also agreed on the need to avoid getting stuck in philosophical debates, keep the work practical, grounded, and data-informed, and consider broader socio-political factors like state presence, poverty, education, and health services in the analysis.
Amy emphasized incorporating both:
- Objective crime rates (quantitative data), and
- Subjective perceptions of safety (qualitative insight)
- She noted that over time, communities may normalize insecurity, underestimating real risks. A possible resource: a Packard-funded report, possibly titled “People Protecting Places (PPP)”.
This would support:
| Term | Possible definition based on our meeting |
|---|---|
| Safety | Objective condition of crime/incidence of threats |
| Security | Subjective perception; feelings of safety, trust in law enforcement, institutions |
đź“Š Data Sources Mentioned
- INEGI – Incidencia delictiva
- Community welfare data, possibly linked to CONANP/Carnival surveys (VĂctor will share these resources in our interactive google document)
- ENVIPE – national perception of public safety survey
- SEMAFORO – municipal-level crime statistics
- PPP report (People Protecting Places) (Check in with Amy to find this)
More topics to think about before our next meeting:
- Determine how to quantify and measure safety/security for both current and future status
- for the OHI core team to consider: for SS’s integration into likely future status, should SS’s trend from the last 3-5 years be used? While the current status each goal is impacted by the current status of SS?
- Identify which OHI GoCA goals are most affected by SS, and assign appropriate weights
- Establish a reference point for an ideal SS state (e.g., no crime? government targets for crime reduction or safety perception?)
- Identify and review relevant data sources for crime/safety across sectors
- Explore government databases and municipal sites for existing indices
- Explore government databases and municipal sites for existing indices
- Explore metrics for organized crime’s impact on conservation and governance capacity
- Consider how to include both general and organized crime in the analysis
- Consider how to include both general and organized crime in the analysis
- Investigate pluralismo jurĂdico and co-management structures as possible frameworks
Thank you for joining our second Safety & Security (SS) Goalkeeper meeting!
This session built on our introduction in Meeting #1. We focused on defining how organized crime and perceptions of safety/security affect each Ocean Health Index (OHI) goal in the Gulf of California.
The group reaffirmed that organized crime is the main driver of insecurity in the Gulf, since even “petty crime” is often linked to cartel activity. Perceptions of safety also play a critical role, shaping trust in communities and affecting daily life.
First, we talked about the ideal state of Safety & Security in the Gulf of California, and agreed that in a perfect world, there would be no crime and perceptions of safety/trust in institutions. This will be our high-level reference point.
The group then reinforced the idea that SS should be treated as a unique pressure that influences all OHI goals, with varying degrees of weight.
We then walked through each OHI goal and discussed how safety and security influence them:
Biodiversity
A diversity of healthy marine species, habitats, and landscapes
- Wildlife trafficking (e.g., totoaba bladder) and drug waste harm local species.
- Drug labs in mangroves produce toxic waste; ratio of waste to product is high (more waste per amount of product).
- Cartel activity on the Sinaloa coast destroys mangroves; discarded barrels and fuel containers wash up with dead animals (turtles) near Culiacán.
- No agency is responsible for cleanup or follow up assessments. Even inland drug production affects watersheds, flowing into the Gulf.
- The exact impact is hard to quantify, but definitely linked to organized crime and their practices in coastal areas.
Sense of Place
A deep sense of identity and belonging with the Gulf of California
- Narco-culture erodes traditions and social fabric; displaces communities.
- Local families leave due to fear, while others (domestic and international) arrive to work under organized crime.
- Some residents are proud of cartel presence because of perceived benefits.
- Example: Kino commissario negotiated with a cartel boss over local leadership.
- Corruption and land-title changes strip locals of territory, creating feelings of defeat and hopelessness among youth.
- Areas, such as public beaches, get claimed by organized crime (OC) groups and changed to private beaches. This is technically illegally done, but through federal and state corruption, public beaches are not enforced.
- Driven by organized crime and safety perceptions.
Livelihoods & Economies
Quantity and quality of ocean-dependent jobs and revenue
- Cartels buy out entire production, set prices, and control supply chains.
- Transactions feel normal, or even friendly, until resistance occurs. Then violence escalates.
- Fishers are sometimes paid in drugs as partial currency, fueling addiction cycles.
- Example: An app used to record catch data led to retaliation; a fisher’s house was burned. Cartels resist order and negotiation.
- Youth are recruited, given motorcycles to patrol, and ensure fishers sell to cartels. This becomes their jobs/livelihoods.
Food Provision
Sustainably harvested seafood from fisheries and mariculture
- Small-scale illegal fishing is prosecuted (such as pangas fishing without a license), while industrial-scale cartel fishing is ignored.
- White collar, industrial crime is often mistaken for community-level issues.
- Linked to corruption across federal, state, and municipal levels. The corruption is so deep that it appears legal.
- Example: Certified marine stewardship council boats follow rules, but obscure sardine fleets operate illegally with “impunity” because no one wants to question them.
- In mariculture, permits are sometimes granted through corrupt arrangements that appear legal but tie back to organized crime.
Tourism & Recreation
Quantity, quality, and sustainability of visitor experiences
- Violence reduces tourism in some regions, though fewer tourists can reduce biodiversity pressure.
- Core issue: corruption that enables land grabs and privatization of beaches (as mentioned in Sense of Place).
- Cartel groups have power to close beaches, claiming them for operations.
- Activities may look legal “on paper” but are supported by organized crime and complicit politicians.
Natural Products
Sustainably harvested marine resources beyond food
- High value species (seahorses, sea cucumbers, totoaba, turtles) are trafficked.
- Anything with value is controlled by organized crime, often exported to Asia.
Artisanal Opportunities
Access to local marine resources and small-scale practices
- Traditional riverine and artisanal fishing cultures are at risk of extinction.
- Ancestral fishing practices tied to community survival are eroding.
- Organized crime presence is normalized; extortion (“pago de piso”) affects even small businesses and fishers.
Clean Waters
Water quality and contaminant levels
- Drug labs destroy mangroves, reducing natural water filtration.
- Cocaine and other drug byproducts are spilled into rivers and seas.
- Similar to biodiversity impacts, but framed around water quality and ecosystem function.
Research & Ocean Literacy
Educational and research access to ocean knowledge
- Insecurity blocks researchers and NGOs from accessing sites.
- Journalists and scientists face intimidation, making data collection difficult.
- Recently, it has become increasingly dangerous due to shifts in political and cartel power; it is harder to know who to negotiate with.
- Example: far fewer researchers in Sinaloa compared to Baja California due to security concerns.
The group emphasized the difficulty of quantifying these impacts due to lack of data, fear of speaking openly, and risks to researchers and journalists.
At the end of the meeting, we began to talk about data sources, such as Global Initiative’s Organized Crime Index. We will continue to explore and talk about indicators in the next meeting.
-
- Objective crime/incidents (organized crime, illegal fishing, wildlife trafficking, drug lab seizures)
- Subjective perceptions of safety (community trust, sense of security)
- Objective crime/incidents (organized crime, illegal fishing, wildlife trafficking, drug lab seizures)
Please add any resources or ideas you have to the SS Goalkeeper Ideas document! That way, the OHI Core Team can explore them before the next meeting.
Thank you, and see you next month!
Our formal meeting this month was an optional office hours to discuss, ask questions, and share thoughts. This was because many of the OHI goals are still in development, and their indicators may shift. So, while we could start identifying how this SS pressure aligns with which OHI goals now, that work might need to be revised shortly.
We will resume our next scheduled meeting on October 24th. In the meantime, we can continue collaborating via email or through the SS Pressurekeeper Ideas document.
I’ve recently come across the Mexico Peace Index (MPI) and Mexico Positive Peace Index (MPPI) by Vision of Humanity, which offers state-level indicator scores for the years 2015 - 2024, similar to the global Organized Crime Index from Global Initiative. For your convenience, I have added a quick overview of the MPI/MPPI indicators in the SS Pressurekeepers Ideas document to help guide our discussions.
I believe we could use MPI indicator scores as pressure scores (and possibly resilience?) that affect specific OHI GoC goals, which helps us avoid reinventing the wheel.
However, the MPI is only available at the state level, and there are other data sources that are more specific to municipios within the coastal area of the Gulf of California. These include:
For Safety (objective criminal incidents):
- SEMAFORO: how concentrated different types of crime are, scaled from green → red (like a traffic light)
- By municipality and year
- MĂ©xico Unido Contra la Delincuencia (MUCD): geographical distribution of the registry of investigation files opened for the crime of intentional homicide and femicide
- This is not by municipio, but instead by geographical area and year
- Mexico Peace Index scores (2015 - 2024): from Vision of Humanity
- Scores are by state and by year, could be adjusted based on population to estimate a score for coastal GoC areas.
- SEMAFORO: how concentrated different types of crime are, scaled from green → red (like a traffic light)
For Security (subjective fear of crime):
- INEGI: National Survey on Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE) 2024:
- Need to consider data completeness by year. As this is survey data, it will take more time and effort to ensure everything is done correctly, and we would need to decide which survey questions best apply.
- Mexico Peace Index scores (2015 - 2024):
- “Fear of Violence” indicator score from Vision of Humanity, scores are by state and by year
- They use INEGI ENVIPE data, which is good!
- INEGI: National Survey on Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE) 2024:
Thank you all again for all the insights and time you contribute. Your participation is deeply appreciated! See you next meeting.
I hope you are all doing well! Thank you again to those who were able to attend our meeting last Friday. Attendance was low, but the discussion was very productive, and I wanted to share the key updates with the whole group.
Meeting Summary & Updates
1. Using SESNSP Data as the Core SS Indicator
We agreed that the SESNSP’s number of crimes should serve as our primary indicator of Safety. Although we previously considered using both the MPI’s Organized Crime index and SESNSP, Jorge made an important point: SESNSP crime counts inherently blend organized and non-organized crime.
Because of this, we should not attempt to separate crimes into organized and non-organized crime, but instead use SESNSP directly, acknowledging that the crimes captured may be of either type.
3. Crime Ă— OHI Goal Matrix
Because each OHI goal is affected by different types of crime, we’re developing a Crime × OHI Goal matrix to define which SESNSP crimes are relevant to each goal. I’ve drafted an initial version based on my own intuition and am now asking for your feedback below.
4. Fear of Violence Matrix (ENVIPE)
We are also developing a Fear of Violence × OHI Goal matrix, using INEGI’s ENVIPE survey. This matrix captures whether perceptions of insecurity should be incorporated into each goal.
5. Placement of Safety & Security Within the Goal Framework
The broader question: “how SS should be incorporated (current status vs. pressures, etc.)” is something our internal team will propose and then run by you for feedback.
In our meeting, we reviewed two example goals:
- Coastal Opportunities (CO): Includes SS in both current status and future condition.
- Biodiversity (BD): Includes SS only in the future condition, since the current status already reflects any impacts.
Jorge endorsed this logic, and these examples give us confidence that we are on the right track for the other goals.
As part of the methodology and documentation, we want to ensure that we are using accurate and widely accepted Spanish terminology to distinguish between objective crime conditions and subjective perceptions.
Based on standard usage in INEGI, ENVIPE, SESNSP, and public-security literature, the recommended pair is:
Safety = Seguridad (objetiva)
Refers to measurable crime conditions or incidence of threats.Security = PercepciĂłn de seguridad (subjetiva)
Refers to the subjective feeling of safety, fear, trust in institutions, and perceived risk.
Why these terms?
- Seguridad is the standard term used for objective, measurable crime conditions across national datasets.
- PercepciĂłn de seguridad is the term used by INEGI/ENVIPE to describe the subjective, experiential dimension of safety. Aka, what people feel about their municipality, rather than what objectively occurs.
- This pairing clearly separates objective vs. subjective dimensions without introducing unfamiliar terminology.
We would greatly appreciate your feedback on whether you agree with this distinction, or if you recommend an alternative phrasing for the Spanish-speaking audience.
Before the end of the year, please take a moment to review and edit the two matrices linked below:
- Crime Ă— OHI Goal Matrix: [insert link]
- Fear of Violence Ă— OHI Goal Matrix: [insert link]
Your input is essential to ensure the SS component reflects expert understanding across all goals. Feel free to add comments or edits directly in the documents.
We expect the next SS Goalkeeper meeting will likely be scheduled for January, when we’ll have some preliminary results ready to review together.
In the meantime, if any of you would like to meet 1:1 to discuss the matrices, provide input, or review the methodological approach, please feel free to reach out! I am very happy to coordinate individual calls.
Thank you all again for your time and guidance. Please let me know if you have any questions, and have a great holiday season!
Stay tuned for Meeting #5 resources.
Additional Insights & Examples
These are some of the points discussed by the Expert Working Group.
- Could separate organized crime from other pressures in the framework, making it a goal
- Explore “Hugs not Drugs” approach (referencing social programs as alternatives)
- Account for perceived differences among the five states (e.g., Sinaloa vs. Sonora)
Social Justice and Green Resilience